Regional case studies in Northern Africa

Regional case studies in Northern Africa are a major research focus of CLISEC to develop and apply conceptual and empirical approaches. In this region, climate change affects the delicate balance between farmers and nomads, urban and rural populations, migrants and communities, upstream and downstream countries. Scenarios of climate change, analysis of social-environmental variables and case studies (Kenya, Morocco, Mali, Nile, Desertec) are used to discuss the potential impact on land and water management under resource-constraints, with effects on conflict and cooperation, stability and instability, migration and adaptation. Extensive field research was conducted in Northwest Kenya to study the conflict between Turkana and Pokot pastoral groups and in South Kenya (Loitoktok) on climate adaptation, ecosystem services, social networks and resource conflict. Qualitative research methods include interviews with community members and experts, focus group discussions, participating observations, and GIS-based analysis. The causal mechanisms are integrated into a conceptual framework to develop general hypotheses on the link between climate, resources and violence in the region and ways to reduce the risk of conflict.