Consistent decadal climate and economic predictions and projections

In this theme we develop economically self-consistent climate policy scenarios. We start from the fact that a potential future climate policy would change the composition of the world-wide energy- and agricultural system. That system, in turn, would not only feed back on the climate system through well-mixed greenhouse gases, but also through regionally acting agents (including land use and aerosol production) with both regional and global consequences.

Both the mass balance and the emission patterns of short-lived agents matter locally and globally. Hereby we tackle an important gap in the climate community’s scenario development strategy, which so far has been organized along the time evolution of the global radiative forcing. Further synergies arise as the ongoing IPCC AR5/CMIP5 simulations will for the first time also tackle aspects of climate prediction, which enhances the simulations’ policy implications for pollution-relevant energy investments. Hence we can address the consequences of global and regional environmental targets in an economically self-consistent way. Technically, we soft-couple existing integrated assessment models (GLOBIOM/REMIND) to the ECHAM6/MPIOM climate model.