CEN/CLISAP/ECRA/WCRP Workshop High-end Scenarios of Regional Sea Level Changes and their Uncertainties

In November 2013, a workshop on high-end scenarios for regional sea level was held at CEN, in the ZMAW building.  The workshop drew many of the most-experienced scientists working on problems in this field together to discuss recent findings, and to plan a way forward for issues that need to be addressed, and future research.  The following is the itinerary for the meeting, followed by a collection of the talks presented (this part is not complete at the moment, but will grow in the future).

9:00 Opening

D. Stammer: WCRP Grant Challenge Sea Level

A. Krell: ECRA - New ways of collaboration in Climate Research

Other programmatic issues

9:45 Session 1: Projections

Topic: What estimates exist of high-end sea level change scenarios and where are their limitations? How would we need to expand methodologies so that the problem of high-end sea level change scenarios can quantitatively be addressed? Are there any suggestions for CMIP6 as to how this problem should be addressed?

9:45 Mojib Latif: Spatial Structure and Initial Value Sensitivity of Future Centennial Trends in Dynamic Sea Level

10:10 Andes Levermann: Estimating the upper limit of 21st-century global-mean sea-level rise

10:35 – 10:50 Coffee Break

10:50 Gabriel Jorda: Mediterranean sea level projections for the XXI century: Up to which extent can the Mediterranean be isolated from global sea level rise?

11:15 Birgit Klein: Sea level and circulation changes in the souther North Sea under the A1B scenario

11:40 Benoit Myssignac: Future interdecadal variability in Pacific Sea level: does it matter for 2100 sea level projections?

12:05 Hylke de Vries: CMIP5-based scenarios for sea-level change for the North Sea

12:30 Kristin Richter: Regional sea level rise projections: the relative importance of internal variability, ocean warming and melting glaciers

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

14:00 Session 2: Processes

Topic: What processes are underlying observed sea level trends. Can we expect chained in their relative importance for future changes? Are observed trends consistent with CMIP5 trends? Which processes are missing in climate models?

14:00 Catia Domingues: Global and regional thermosteric sea level (ocean heat content) changes since 1970

14:25 H. von Storch: Regional Sea level change along the North Sea coasts

14:50 Frank Siegismund: Prediction of regional sea level variations applying Linear Inverse Models

15:15 Prosper Evadzi: Reliable Sea Level Data on Ghana

15:40 – 16:00 Coffee Break

16:00 Roderik van de Wal: Towards a probability density function of sea level rise on a regional scale

16:25 Volker Kleman: The coastal response to glacial and ocean loading

16:50 Carmen Boening: Assessing land/ocean water exchange processes related to interannual to decadal sea level variations

17:15 Till Kuhlbrodt: Ocean heat uptake, its influence on sea level rise and its regional structure

17:40 Discussion

18:30 Reception

9:00 Session 2, cont.

9:00 Mat Palmer: Decadal variability in Earth's energy budget from CMIP5 pre-industrial control simulations

9:25 Armin Köhl: Detecting processes contributing to interannual halosteric and thermosteric sea level variability (pdf)

9:50 Per Knudsen: Arctic Sea Level

10:15 Jan Even Nilsen: Steric heights and sea level of the Nordic Seas

10:40 – 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 Gianmaria Sannino: On the relevance of lateral boundary conditions and strait dynamics on the simulated sea-level in regional climate models: the Mediterranean Sea case

11:25 Sitar Karabil: Investigating sea level trends and vertical land motions on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey

Session 3: Data Issues

Topic: Which observational data sets are required to properly observed sea level on a global, regional to coastal scale, including the deep ocean and the ocean under sea ice? Which observations do we need to better observe land ice changes and land ice dynamics? Is the existing data quality sufficient?

11:50 Sönke Dangendorf: A new atmospheric proxy for sea-level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and ensemble future projections

12:15 Gerhard Schmiedl: Potential of foraminifers for sea-level reconstructions in intertidal environments of the southeastern North Sea (pdf)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

14:00 Luciana Fenoglio-Marc: Geodetic monitoring of sea level change and consistency of altimetric, in-situ and model data in the German Bight.

14:25 Discussion

15:00 Coffee Break

16:00 Key Note as part of KlimaCampus Kolloquium

T. Busalacchi: Future Directions for the World Climate Research Programme: Grand Challenges for the Decade ahead

19:00 Conference Dinner

9:00 Session 4: Impacts

Topic: What information and data sets are required to properly address sea level impact questions regarding high-end but also likely sea level changes? Are there requirements that presently cannot be provided through existing data sets or model simulations? E.g., are extremes in storm surges and waves more relevant than secular sea level trends?

9:00 Unnikrishnan: Extreme sea level changes along the western Bay of Bengal coast

9:25 Mohammed Kedir: Climate Variability and Modeling of Malaria incidence

9:50 Karoline Katsman: Wind extremes and surges in the North Sea Basin under climate change: An ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs

10:15 Elisabeth Rudolf: Implications of a Sea Level Rise in the German Bight for the Estuaries of Elbe, Jade-Weser and Ems especially during storm surge

10:40 – 11:00 Coffee Break

11:00 Goneri Le Cozannet: Using sea level rise scenarios for assessing coastal impacts: existing approaches and their application in the French adaptation framework

11:25 Liana McManus: Rising Oceans: Assessing Potential Impacts on Coastal Communities

11:50 J. Scheffran and M. Link: Coastal Vulnerability and Resilience to Sea-level Change

14:00 Session 5: Uncertainties

Topic: Are existing practices to estimate uncertainties of sea level projections sufficient? What are uncertainties intrinsic to observations, process-base models or semi-empirical models? Which uncertainties in projections arise from missing processes?

12:15 Eduardo Zorita: Detecting acceleration in Baltic sea-level records (pdf)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

14:00 Mark Carson: Uncertainties and Possible Extremes in Regional Sea Level Projections

14:25 Svetlana Jevreveva: Uncertainties in sea level projections due to GIA corrections

14:50 Felix Landerer: Evaluation of CMIP5 dynamic sea surface height multi-model simulations against satellite observations

15:15 Discussion

(White) Paper:

Paper summarizing the state of our knowledge about:

  • Estimates exist of high-end sea level change scenarios and their limitations.
  • How we would need to expand methodologies so that the problem of high-end sea level change scenarios can quantitatively be addressed.
  • Processes underlying observed sea level trends and their representation in climate models.
  • Consistency between observed and CMIP5 trends consistent.
  • Improved approaches to estimate uncertainties of sea level projection
  • Requirements for an observing system to properly observe sea level change from global to coastal scale.
  • Observational requirements to improve our knowledge about land ice changes
  • Information and data sets required to properly address sea level impact questions
  • Suggestions for CMIP6 for better addressing the problem of global to regional to local sea level change.

Remaining business

16:00 End of Workshop