From research conducted during CliSAP-1 it emerged that better understanding feedback processes within and between climate system components is essential for analyzing the adjustment of the climate system to external and anthropogenic forcing. This, in turn, will likely reduce the uncertainty of climate change scenarios and decadal climate predictions.
1. Tropical precipitation margins
Several studies, including analyses of critical feedbacks over Northern Africa undertaken by CliSAP-1, demonstrated the weakness of climate system models with respect to the precipitation distribution in the tropics. Hence tropical precipitation and monsoon margins are assessed as a function of representation of convection and the surface-atmosphere interaction with special emphasis on the variability and its physical controls (e.g. the Madden-Julian Oscillation – MJO at intra-seasonal scale). Modeling studies on tropical precipitation and monsoon margins are complemented by data analyses.
2. Climate, Land Use and Conflict in Northern Africa
In cooperation with CliSAP Research Area C4, possible future climate change in Africa north of the Equator is analyzed, and possible interactions between climate, anthropogenic land cover change and land use are explored.
3. Volcanic ash mobilization
Volcanic ash mobilization on land may represent a major post-eruption source of volcanic ash aerosols, e.g. available for land and for ocean fertilization where it may stimulate the biological CO2 pump.