Workshop

26.-29. May 2015, Grindelberg 5, Room 008

The climate system is a nonlinear and multi-scale system. These properties impede the skillful prediction of the climate system, especially on longer time scales and also of extreme events. A general theory describing such systems does not exist yet, despite recent progress. The goal of this workshop is to bring together experts in extreme event modelling, climate modelling, nonlinear dynamics, data assimilation and geohazards. We aim to strengthen collaboration between these different communities.

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Tuesday, 26. May 2015

(Chair: Valerio Lucarini)

14:00 Valerio Lucarini - Welcome

14:10 Rick Katz - "Inferences about extremal behavior of atmospheric variables based on statistical theory of extreme values"

15:10 Chiara Bearzotti - "EU Funding possibilities for your research: an overview"

15:55 Break

16:30 Jin-Song von Storch - “On fluctuations of fluxes due to oceanic mesoscale eddies”

17:00 Carsten Eden - "Modelling internal gravity wave generation, propagation, and dissipation in the ocean"

17:30 End

Wednesday, 27. May 2015

(Chair: Richard Blender)

9:00 Tim Palmer - “More accuracy with less precision - a stochastic paradigm for reliable weather and climate prediction”

10:00 Pascal Yiou - "Butterflies, black swans and dodos: Analogues of circulation to investigate extreme climate events"

10:30 Petra Friederichs - “Bayesian approaches and max-stable processes for the prediction of spatial weather extremes“

11:00 Break

11:20 Mark Holland - “On recurrence statistics and almost sure convergence of extremes for dynamical systems”

11:50 Valerio Lucarini - "Extremes in dynamical systems"

12:20 Lunch Break

(Chair: Andrey Gritsun)

13:30 Sebastian Schubert - "Localization of Covariant Lyapunov Vectors in quasi-geostrophic flows induced by topography"

14:00 Ira Didenkulova - "Freak waves in the coastal zone"

15:00 Reik Donner - "Catching extremes: definition, statistics and interdependence in climate and ecosystem variables"

15:30 Break

15:50 Eric Chavez - "Optimum risk management with non-stationary climate risk: the ClimateKIC WiNnERS project"

16:20 Dim Coumou - "Weakened Flow, Persistent Circulation and Prolonged Extreme Weather Events in Boreal Summer"

16:50 Eduardo Zorita - “Relationship between North European extreme winds and large-scale climate drivers in global and regional climate simulations”

17:20 Joern Behrens - "Deterministic approaches to modeling natural hazards and dealing with uncertainty"

19:00 Dinner Bekaa

Thursday, 28. May 2015

(Chair: Christian Franzke)

9:30 Tamas Tel - "The snapshot attractor view in climate dynamics:
from a low-order model to PlaSim"

10:30 Alexander Feigin - "Empirical studies of climate variability: prognostic models of high-dimensional spatially distributed systems from short and noisy time series”

11:00 Break

11:20 Tamas Bodai - “Predictability of heavy-tailed extremes”

11:50 Andrey Gritsun - "Behavior of a barotropic atmospheric model subject to stochastic perturbations"

12:20 Lunch Break

(Chair: Eduardo Zorita)

13:30 Valery Klyatskin - “Thought on stochastic structure formation in random media”

14:00 Juan Lopez - "Fluctuations of the Lyapunov exponent in spatially extended dynamical
systems"

14:30 Richard Blender - “Non-exponential return time distributions of vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes”

15:00 Break

15:30 Paul Williams - "Extremes in atmospheric turbulence: response to climate change"

16:00 Christian Franzke - “Physics constrained parameter estimation of stochastic differential equations”

16:30 Proposal discussion

17:00 End

Friday, 29. May 2015

(Chair: Valerio Lucarini)

9:00 Johanna Baehr - “Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with MPI-ESM”

10:00 Alberto Carrassi - “Data assimilation in Geoscience: from weather to climate prediction”

10:30 Break

11:00 Further proposal discussion/other topics

12:00 End and Lunch