All A1 Publications

  • Wiegand, K. N., Brune, S., & Baehr, J. (2019). Predictability of Multiyear Trends of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in an MPI-ESM Hindcast Ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(1), 318-325. Retrieved from https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85059469952&doi=10.1029%2f2018GL080661&partnerID=40&md5=5e0b0a0b20669539d4136181c5cefbd1.
  • Badin, G., Franzke, C., Rademacher, J., & Oliver, M. (2019). Multi-scale Methods for Geophysical Flows. In C. Eden, & A. Iske (Eds.), Energy Transfers in Atmosphere and Ocean (pp. 1-51). Cham: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-030-05704-6_1.
  • Wahl, E., Zorita, E., Trouet, V., & Taylor, A. (2019). Jet stream dynamics, hydroclimate, and fire in California from 1600 CE to present. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116(12), 5393-5398. doi:10.1073/pnas.1815292116.
  • Kilic, C., Lunkeit, F., Raible, C. C., & Stocker, T. F. (2018). Stable Equatorial Ice Belts at High Obliquity in a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model. Astrophysical Journal, 864(2): 106. Retrieved from 10.3847/1538-4357/aad5eb.
  • Blender, R., Gohlke, D., & Lunkeit, F. (2018). Fluctuation analysis of the atmospheric energy cycle. Physical Review E, 98: 023101, pp. 1-7. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.98.023101.
  • Tantet, A., Lucarini, V., Lunkeit, F., & Dijkstra, H. A. (2018). Crisis of the chaotic attractor of a climate model: a transfer operator approach. Nonlinearity, 31(5), 2221-2251. doi:10.1088/1361-6544/aaaf42.
  • Bunzel, F., Müller, W. A., Dobrynin, M., Fröhlich, K., Hagemann, S., Pohlmann, H., Stacke, T., & Baehr, J. (2018). Improved seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures with new five-layer soil-hydrology scheme. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 346-353. doi:10.1002/2017GL076204.
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  • Risbey, J. S., O'Kane, T. J., Monselesan, D. P., Franzke, C., & Horenko, I. (2018). On the Dynamics of Austral Heat Waves. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 123, 38-57. doi:10.1002/2017JD027222.
  • Tian, F., von Storch, J. S., & Hertwig, E. (2018). Impact of SST diurnal cycle on ENSO asymmetry. Climate Dynamics, 52(3-4), 2399-2411. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4271-7.
  • Vissio, G., & Lucarini, V. (2018). A proof of concept for scale-adaptive parametrizations: the case of the Lorenz '96 model. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 144, 63-75. doi:10.1002/qj.3184.
  • Crucifix, M., de Vernal, A., & Franzke, C. (2017). Centennial climate change: The unknown variability zone. Centennial to Millennial Climate Variability, 25(3), 133. doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.133.
  • Kröger, J., Pohlmann, H., Sienz, F., Marotzke, J., Baehr, J., Köhl, A., Modali, K., Polkova, I., Stammer, D., Vamborg, F., & Müller, W. A. (2018). Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI Earth System Model: An initial shock in the North Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 51, 2593-2608. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-4030-1.
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  • Franzke, C., & Yuan, N. (2017). Why is scaling important? Centennial to Millennial Climate Variability, 25(3), 134-135. doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.134.
  • Crucifix, M., de Vernal, A., Franzke, C., & von Gunten, L. (Eds.). (2017). Centennial to Millennial Climate Variability [Special Issue]. Past Global Changes Magazine, 25(3),. doi:10.22498/pages.25.3.
  • Barkhordarian, A., von Storch, H., Zorita, E., Loikith, P. C., & Mechoso, C. R. (2017). Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin. Climate Dynamics, 51(5-6), 1901-1914. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3988-z.
  • Önskog, T., Franzke, C., & Hannachi, A. (2018). Predictability and Non-Gaussian Characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 31, 537-554. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0101.1.
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  • Pollmann, F., Eden, C., & Olbers, D. (2017). Evaluating the global internal wave model IDEMIX using finestructure methods. Journal of Physical Oceanography, available online ahead of print. doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0204.1.
  • Böhner, J., Lucarini, V., & ul Hasson, S. (2017). Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus basin. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 337-355. doi:10.5194/esd-8-337-2017.
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  • Blender, R., & Badin, G. (2017). Construction of Hamiltonian and Nambu forms for the shallow water equations. Fluids, 2: 24. doi:10.3390/fluids2020024.
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  • Yi, X., Hünicke, B., Tim, N., & Zorita, E. (2018). The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian Monsoon revisited in a high resolution ocean simulation. Climate Dynamics, 50(1-2), 201-213. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3599-8.
  • Flohr, P., Fleitmann, D., Zorita, E., Sadekov, A., Cheng, H., Bosomworth, M., Edwards, L., Matthews, W., & Matthews, R. (2017). Late Holocene droughts in the Fertile Crescent recorded in a speleothemfrom northern Iraq. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 1528-1536. doi:10.1002/2016GL071786.
  • Franzke, C., O'Kane, T., Monselesan, D., Risbey, J., & Horenko, I. (2017). On memory, dimension, and atmospheric teleconnections. Mathematics of Climate and Weather Forecasting, 3, 1-27. doi:10.1515/mcwf-2017-0001.
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  • Li, Z., von Storch, J. S., & Müller, M. (2017). The K1 internal tide simulated by a 1/10° OGCM. Ocean Modelling, 113, 145-156. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.04.002.
  • Graves, T., Franzke, C., Watkins, N. W., Gramacy, R. B., & Tindale, E. (2017). Systematic inference of the long-range dependence and heavy-tail distribution parameters of ARFIMA models. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 473, 60-71. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2017.01.028.
  • Graves, T., Gramacy, R., Watkins, N., & Franzke, C. (2017). A Brief History of Long Memory: Hurst, Mandelbrot and the Road to ARFIMA, 1951-1980. Entropy, 19: 437. doi:10.3390/e19090437.
  • Pyrina, M., Wagner, S., & Zorita, E. (2017). Evaluation of CMIP5 models over the northern North Atlantic in the context of forthcoming paleoclimatic reconstructions. Climate Dynamics, 1-19. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3536-x.
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  • Franzke, C. (2017). Extremes in dynamic-stochastic systems. Chaos, 27(1). doi:10.1063/1.4973541.
  • Bodai, T., & Franzke, C. (2017). Predictability of fat-tailed extremes. Physical Review E, 96: 032120. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.96.032120.
  • von Storch, J. S., Haak, H., Hertwig, E., & Fast, I. (2016). Vertical heat and salt fluxes due to resolved and parameterized meso-scale eddies. Ocean Modelling, 108, 1-18. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.10.001.
  • Blender, R., Raible, C. C., & Franzke, C. L. E. (2016). Vorticity and geopotential height extreme values in ERA-Interim data during boreal winters. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. doi:10.1002/qj.2944.
  • Bathiany, S., Lucarini, V., von der Heydt, A., Dijkstra, H. A., van de Wal, R. S. W., Caballero, R., Crucifix, M., Foster, G. L., Huber, M., Köhler, P., Rohling, E., Valdes, P. J., Ashwin, P., Berends, T., van Bree, L. G. J., Ditlevsen, P., Ghil, M., Haywood, A. M., Katzav, J., Lohmann, G., Lohmann, J., Marzocchi, A., Pälike, H., Ruvalcaba Baroni, I., Simon, D., Sluijs, A., Stap, L. B., Tantet, A., Viebahn, J., & Ziegler, M. (2016). Lessons on Climate Sensitivity From Past Climate Changes. Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 148-158. doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0049-3.
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  • Tian, F., von Storch, J. S., & Hertwig, E. (2017). Air–sea fluxes in a climate model using hourly coupling between the atmospheric and the oceanic components. Climate Dynamics, 48, 2819-2836. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3228-y.
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  • Rimac, A., von Storch, J. S., & Eden, C. (2016). The total energy flux leaving the ocean's mixed layer. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 46, 1885-1900. doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0115.1.
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  • Ul Hasson, S., Pascale, S., Lucarini, V., & Böhner, J. (2016). Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections. Atmospheric Research, 180, 42-63. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008.
  • Luo, D., Xiao, Y., Diao, Y., Dai, A., Franzke, C., & Simmonds, I. (2016). Impact of Ural Blocking on Winter Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasian Anomalies. Part II: The Link to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Climate, 29(11), 3949-3971. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0612.1.
  • Luo, D., Xiao, Y., Yao, Y., Dai, A., Simmonds, I., & Franzke, C. (2016). Impact of Ural Blocking on Winter Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasian Anomalies. Part I: Blocking-Induced Amplification. Journal of Climate, 29(11), 3925-3947. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0611.1.
  • Franzke, C., Lee, S., & Feldstein, S. B. (2016). Evaluating Arctic warming mechanism in CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics, 48, 3247-3260. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3262-9.
  • Boers, N., Bookhagen, B., Marengo, J., Marwan, N., von Storch, J. S., & Kurths, J. (2015). Extreme rainfall of the South American monsoon system: A dataset comparison using complex networks. Journal of Climate, 28, 1031-1056. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00340.1.
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  • Mielke, C. L. (2015). The North Atlantic deep western boundary current: seasonal cycle, decadal variability and relation to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. PhD Thesis, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg. doi:10.17617/2.2095773.
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  • Graves, T., Gramacy, R. B., Franzke, C., & Watkins, N. W. (2015). Efficient Bayesian inference for ARFIMA processes. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 22, 679-200. doi:10.5194/npg-22-679-2015.
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  • Ragone, F., Lucarini, V., & Lunkeit, F. (2015). A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective. Climate Dynamics, 1-13. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2657-3.
  • Dobrynin, M., Murawski, J., Baehr, J., & Ilyina, T. (2015). Detection and attribution of climate change signal in ocean wind waves. Journal of Climate, 28, 1578-1591. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00664.1.
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  • Blender, R., & Badin, G. (2015). Hydrodynamic Nambu brackets derived by geometric constraints. Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General, 48(10): 105501. doi:10.1088/1751-8113/48/10/105501.
  • Lin, Y., & Franzke, C. (2015). Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming. Scientific Reports, 5: 12971. doi:10.1038/srep12971.
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  • Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., Franzke, C., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2016). Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica. Climate Dynamics, 46(1), 263-271. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2582-5.
  • Franzke, C., Monselesan, D., O'Kane, T., Risbey, J., & Horenko, I. (2015). Systematic attribution of observed Southern Hemisphere circulation trends to external forcing and internal variability. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 22, 513-525. doi:10.5194/npg-22-513-2015.
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  • Furue, R., Jia, Y., McCreary, J., Schneider, N., Richards, K., Müller, P., Cornuelle, B., Martinez Avellaneda, N., Stammer, D., Liu, C., & Köhl, A. (2015). Impacts of regional mixing on the temperature structure of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part 1: Vertically uniform vertical diffusion. Ocean Modelling, 91, 91-111. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.10.002.
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  • Tim, N., Zorita, E., & Hünicke, B. (2015). Decadal variability and trends of the Benguela Upwelling System as simulated in a high-resolution ocean simulation. Ocean Science Discussions, 12, 403-447. doi:10.5194/osd-12-403-2015.
  • Stössel, A., Notz, D., Haumann, F. A., Haak, H., Jungclaus, J. H., & Mikolajewicz, U. (2015). Controlling high-latitude Southern Ocean convection in climate models. Ocean Modelling, 86, 58-75. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.11.008.
  • Baehr, J., Fröhlich, K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D., Kornblueh, L., Notz, D., Piontek, R., Pohlmann, H., Tietsche, S., & Müller, W. A. (2015). The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model. Climate Dynamics, 44, 2723-2735. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7.
  • Hertwig, E., von Storch, J. S., Handorf, D., Dethloff, D., & Krismer, T. (2015). Effect of horizontal resolution on ECHAM6-AMIP performance. Climate Dynamics, 45, 185-211. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2396-x.
  • Franzke, C. (2014). Warming trends: Nonlinear climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4, 423-424. doi:10.1038/nclimate2245.
  • Blessing, S., Kaminski, T., Lunkeit, F., Matei, I., Giering, R., Köhl, A., Scholze, M., Herrmann, P., Fraedrich, K. F., & Stammer, D. (2014). Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model. Tellus Series A-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 66: 22606. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.22606.
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  • Blender, R., Raible, C. C., & Lunkeit, F. (2015). Non-exponential return time distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson processes. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141(686), 249-257. doi:10.1002/qj.2354.
  • Hasson, S., Lucarini, V., Pascale, S., & Böhner, J. (2014). Seasonality of the hydrological cycle in major South and Southeast Asian river basins as simulated by PCMDI/CMIP3 experiments. Earth System Dynamics, 5, 67-87. doi:10.5194/esd-5-67-2014.
  • Lucarini, V., & Pascale, S. (2014). Entropy production and coarse graining of the climate fields in a General Circulation Model. Climate Dynamics, 43, 981-1000. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2052-5.
  • Colangeli, M., & Lucarini, V. (2014). Elements of a unified framework for response formulae. JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT, P01002. doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2014/01/P01002.
  • Cnossen, I., & Franzke, C. (2014). The role of the sun in long-term change in the F2 peak ionosphere: new insights from EEMD and numerical modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 119(10), 8610-8623. doi:10.1002/2014JA020048.
  • Köhl, A., Stammer, D., & Sens-Martin, M. (2014). Impact of assimilating surface salinity from SMOS on ocean circulation estimates. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 119(8), 5449-5464. doi:10.1002/2014JC010040.
  • von Storch, J. S. (2014). High-resolution ocean modelling at the MPI-M. In WGOMD Workshop on High Resolution Ocean Climate Modeling: Abstracts.
  • Peavoy, D., Franzke, C., & Roberts, G. O. (2015). Systematic physics constrained parameter estimation of stochastic differential equations. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 83, 182-199. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2014.10.011.
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  • Liu, C., Köhl, A., & Stammer, D. (2014). Interpreting layer thickness advection in terms of eddy–topography interaction. Ocean Modelling, 81, 65-77. doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.07.001.
  • Pascale, S., Lucarini, V., Feng, X., Porporato, A., & Hasson, S. u. (2015). Analysis of rainfall seasonality from observations and climate models. Climate Dynamics, 44(11), 3281-3301. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2278-2.
  • Woolings, T., Franzke, C., Hodson, D., Dong, B., Barnes, E., Raible, C., & Pinto, J. (2014). Contrasting interannual and multidecadal NAO variability. Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2237-y.
  • Faranda, D., Lucarini, V., Manneville, P., & Wouters, J. (2014). On using extreme values to detect global stability thresholds in multi-stable systems: The case of transitional plane Couette flow. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 64, 26-35. doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2014.01.008.
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  • Hasson, S., Lucarini, V., Khan, M. R., Petitta, M., Bolch, T., & Gioli, G. (2014). Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18, 4077-4100. doi:10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014.
  • Kim, S.-W., K. Song, S.-Y., Kim, S.-W.-S., & Franzke, C. (2014). Linear and Nonlinear Trends of Extreme Temperatures in Korea. Atmosphere (in Korean), 24, 379-390.
  • Franzke, C., O'Kane, T. J., Berner, J. B., Williams, P. D., & Lucarini, V. (2015). Stochastic climate theory and modeling. WIREs Climate Change, 6(1), 63-78. doi:10.1002/wcc.318.
  • Schubert, S., & Lucarini, V. (2014). Statistical mechanics of the baroclinic instability. In European Geoscience Union (EGU), General Assembly: Geophysical Research Abstracts (pp. EGU2014-11663).
  • Zorita, E., & Wagner, S. (2014). Insights from the past millennium climate simulations into the recent temperature hiatus. In European Geoscience Union (EGU), General Assembly: Geophysical Research Abstracts (pp. EGU2014-2501-1).
  • Knietzsch, M.-A., Lucarini, V., & Lunkeit, F. (2014). The impact of oceanic heat transport on the mean meridional circulation. In European Geoscience Union (EGU), General Assembly: Geophysical Research Abstracts (pp. EGU2014-11602).
  • von Storch, J. S. (2014). What have we learned from the German consortium project STORM aiming at high-resolution climate simulations? In European Geoscience Union (EGU), General Assembly: Geophysical Research Abstracts (pp. EGU2014-9845).
  • Schroeder, A., Lunkeit, F., & Lucarini, V. (2014). Impact of oceanic heat transport on global thermodynamical properties in the climate system. In European Geoscience Union (EGU), General Assembly: Geophysical Research Abstracts (pp. EGU2014-11481-1).
  • Müller, M., Cherniawsky, J., Foreman, M., & von Storch, J. S. (2014). Seasonal variation of the M2 tide. Ocean Dynamics, 64, 159-177. doi:10.1007/s10236-013-0679-0.
  • Rimac, A., von Storch, J. S., Eden, C., & Haak, H. (2013). The influence of high-resolution wind forcing on the power input to near-inertial waves in the ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 40, 4882-4886. doi:10.1002/grl.50929.
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  • Woollings, T., Czuchniki, C., & Franzke, C. (2013). Twentieth century North Atlantic jet variability. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140, 783-791. doi:10.1002/qj.2197.
  • Jungclaus, J. H., Fischer, N., Haak, H., Lohmann, K., Marotzke, J., Matei, D., Mikolajewicz, U., Notz, D., & von Storch, J.-S. (2013). Characteristics of the ocean simulations in MPIOM, the ocean component of the MPI Earth System Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 422-446. doi:10.1002/jame.20023.
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  • Li, H., & von Storch, J. S. (2013). On the fluctuating buoyancy fluxes simulated in a 1/10° OGCM. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 1270-1287. doi:10.1175/JPO-D-12-080.1.
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  • Schalge, B., Blender, R., Wouters, J., Fraedrich, K., & Lunkeit, F. (2013). Evidence for a fluctuation theorem in an atmospheric circulation model. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, 87(5): 052113. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.87.052113.
  • Blender, R., Wouters, J., & Lucarini, V. (2013). Avalanches, breathers, and flow reversal in a continuous Lorenz-96 model. PHYSICAL REVIEW E, 88(1): 013201. doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.88.013201.
  • Faranda, D., Lucarini, V., Turchetti, G., & Vaienti, S. (2012). Generalized extreme value distribution parameters as dynamical indicators of stability. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIFURCATION AND CHAOS, 22(11): 1250276. doi:10.1142/S0218127412502768.

Related Publications (CliSAP 1, 2007-2012)

  • Faranda, D., Lucarini, V., Turchetti, G., & Vaienti, S. (2012). Generalized extreme value distribution parameters as dynamical indicators of stability. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIFURCATION AND CHAOS, 22(11): 1250276. doi:10.1142/S0218127412502768.
  • Lucarini, V., Faranda, D., Turchetti, G., & Vaienti, S. (2012). Extreme value theory for singular measures. CHAOS, 22(2): 023135. doi:10.1063/1.4718935.
  • Lucarini, V., & Colangeli, M. (2012). Beyond the linear fluctuation-dissipation theorem: the role of causality. JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT, P05013. doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2012/05/P05013.
  • Wouters, J., & Lucarini, V. (2012). Disentangling multi-level systems: averaging, correlations and memory. JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL MECHANICS-THEORY AND EXPERIMENT, P03003. doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2012/03/P03003.
  • Olbers, D., Willebrand, J., & Eden, C. (Eds.). (2012). Ocean Dynamics. Berlin: Springer. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-23450-7.
  • Schalge, B., Blender, R., & Fraedrich, K. (2011). Blocking Detection Based on Synoptic Filters. ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY, 717812. doi:10.1155/2011/717812.
  • Loptien, U., & Eden, C. (2010). Multidecadal CO2 uptake variability of the North Atlantic. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 115: D12113. doi:10.1029/2009JD012431.
  • Liu, N., Eden, C., Dietze, H., Wu, D., & Lin, X. (2010). Model-based estimate of the heat budget in the East China Sea. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 115: C08026. doi:10.1029/2009JC005869.
  • Kaese, R. H., Serra, N., Koehl, A., & Stammer, D. (2009). Mechanisms for the variability of dense water pathways in the Nordic Seas. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 114: C01013. doi:10.1029/2008JC004916.
  • Eden, C., & Dengler, M. (2008). Stacked jets in the deep equatorial Atlantic Ocean. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 113(C4): C04003. doi:10.1029/2007JC004298.
  • von Schuckmann, K., Brandt, P., & Eden, C. (2008). Generation of tropical instability waves in the Atlantic Ocean. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 113(C8): C08034. doi:10.1029/2007JC004712.
  • Zorita, E., Stocker, T. F., & von Storch, H. (2008). How unusual is the recent series of warm years? GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 35(24): L24706. doi:10.1029/2008GL036228.