Predictability originating from responses to perturbations in external forcing

One focus within this objective for the efforts led by Eduardo Zorita is the analysis of the CMIP5 past millennium simulations and proxy-based temperature reconstructions over Europe with the aim of disentangling the externally forced from the internally generated temperature variability. So far the analysis indicates that the external forcing is clearly detectable in the European millennium temperatures and multidecadal timescales in simulations and reconstructions. Furthermore, the pattern of summer temperature variability also displays the influence of the meridional displacements of the summer storm tracks over the North Atlantic, and this is unrelated to the external forcing. This pattern also shows clear similarities in simulations and reconstructions.

Another focus within this objective for the efforts led by Valerio Lucarini is on the thermodynamics of the climate system (Bodai et al. 2014, Boschi et al. 2012, Schroeder et al. 2014, Knietzsch et al. 2014), changes in the regime characteristics and modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation (Franzke et al. 2014, Woollings et al. 2014, O’Kane et al. 2013, Risbey et al. 2014) and the trend behaviour (Bunde et al. 2014, Ludescher et al. 2014, Cnossen et al. 2014). We also examine the fundamental properties of instabilities (Schubert and Lucarini 2014), the response to external forcing (Ragone et al. 2014), and the mathematical properties of extreme events (Faranda et al. 2013, Lucarini et al. 2013, 2014).

Participating team members:
Eduardo Zorita, Valerio Lucarini, Christian Franzke, F. Ragone, Richard Blender, Frank Lunkeit.