Climate predictability affected by and resulting from internal variability

Within this objective we focus on internal climate dynamics and variability, with respect to both limits of predictability originating from unpredictable fluctuations (led by Jin-Song von Storch), and predictability originating from slow climate components (in collaboration with CRG Baehr).

For the efforts lead by Jin-Song von Storch, AMIP-style simulations with ECHAM6 at different horizontal resolution (T63L95, T127L95, and T255L95) are used to quantify the impact of small-scale fluctuating components on large-scale states. With increasing resolution the simulated climate is, when measured by a global measure, closer to the reanalysis with respect to the mean state and the variance (Dahms et al., 2014), especially in the extra-tropics. Also, stratospheric variability is stronger influenced by the horizontal resolution than the troposphere. Major challenges remain the simulation of the precipitation and climate features like the MJO, which might require a coupled atmosphere-ocean model.

Participating team members:
Jin-Song von Storch, Eileen Hertwig, Johanna Baehr, Daniela Domeisen.

Magnitudes of the mean (bottom) and fluctuating (top) components of the divergences of oceanic eddy heat fluxes at 2000 m in the 1/10 degree STORM ocean-only simulation (Li and von Storch, JPO, 2013). Previous studies on meso-scale eddies have been concen